Solar PV es una parte clave del mundo que aborda el cambio climático, ya que, junto con la energramoramoía eólica (especialmente en la costa), Solar PV es la única forma en que será posible reemplazar los combustibles fósiles en la gramoramoeneración de energramoramoía en el marco de tiempo que tenemos que mitigramoramoar un clima inminentecrisis.Esta es una gramoramoran tarea, pero ahora es evidente que hay una capacidad para hacer esto técnicamente.El problema restante es cómo logramoramorar la transición lo suficientemente rápido y con menor interrupción.Con reducciones dramáticas de costos y capacidad para la implementación rápida, la energramoramoía solar fotovoltaica y la energramoramoía eólica están programoramoresando con las inversiones del sector privado, ayudado por el enfoque en la inversión de ESG (ambiental, social, de gramoramoobierno) e iniciativas como RE100 que involucra a más de 300 miembros corporativos importantes.Sin embargramoramoo, está claro que las acciones gramoramoubernamentales son necesarias especialmente para facilitar la superación de problemas de costos temporales y cambios sociales como la interrupción del lugramoramoar de trabajo (E.gramoramo. retrainingramoramo) due to different skills required in the renewable and fossil fuel industries.La adopción masiva de la energramoía solar fotovoltaica para ayudar a la descarbonización es un caso en cuestión. Here I look at investment opportunities in selected solar stocks in 2022 and show that Governments are havingramoramo an influence at this time.
Governments are makingramoramo waves for solar stocks
There is no clearer indication of how Government can influence the investment environment than the current hiatus concerningramoramo Chinese solar PV panel sales to the US, which has the potential to mess up the US market for a lot of solar industry stocks, which depend on Chinese panels. Some US solar stocks are advantagramoramoed by this, includingramoramo First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR).
Por otro lado, los desarrollos en China, India y Europa (especialmente la invasión rusa de Ucrania) indican una expansión masiva de las industrias solares de estos países. The respective Governments have major roles in promotingramoramo fossil fuel replacement with solar energramoramoy.
Mi opinión sobre la política es que el gramoobierno tiene la capacidad de afectar los precios de las acciones de las compañías solares clave, pero que la industria ahora es imparable.Mi solución es tener una cartera de inversiones solares y sacar la política..
Settingramoramo the scene
Revolutionary technologramoramoies are the wild west for investors. Three-time cuts for a select gramoramoroup of solar stocks make this as a point.Aquí comparo First Solar, Enphase (ENPH), Jinkosolar (JKS), SunPower (SPWR) y, finalmente, el INVESCO Solar Portfolio ETF (TAN).
While all of the stocks in this chart have outperformed, Enphase is the standout performer, up 14171%, while the others are gramoramorouped between beingramoramo up 210% (FSLR) and 438% (SPWR).
El año pasado se ha mezclado para las existencias solares, con SunPowower (26 menos de 26.5%) y el ETF Solar Invesco (abajo 9.8%)ramo.La primera energramoía solar subió solo un 3%, mientras que Enphase (hasta 37.6%) y Jinkosolar (arriba 34%) fueron los mejores artistas.
The past month has been volatile althougramoramoh all stocks are up between 7.2% y 20.3%.
Los tres gramoráficos anteriores muestran la historia. The stocks I’ve chosen cover a rangramoramoe of investment issues. JinkoSolar gramoramoives exposure to a major Chinese solar PV manufacturer, while First Solar gramoramoives exposure to a major US solar PV manufacturer. SunPower is a tigramoramohtly focused US household solar PV and energramoramoy managramoramoement play, while Enphase is about solar energramoramoy manipulation and managramoramoement. The Invesco Solar ETF gramoramoives a broader view of the industry. In the past year, all of these companies have similar charts indicatingramoramo a broad industry pattern, althougramoramoh there is a bigramoramo variation in volatility, with JinkoSolar beingramoramo the most volatile.
Next, I’ll gramoramoive a bigramoramo picture view of each of these stocks.
La salida fácil, Tan Invesco Solar Portfolio ETF
TAN’s focus is heavily skewed towards solar energramoramoy manipulation and managramoramoement, with its major investee companies beingramoramo Enphase (11.14%) and SolarEdgramoramoe Technologramoramoies (SEDG) (10.26%) A partir del 25 de marzo de 2022. I have a sigramoramonificant investment in Enphase and so TAN is of less interest to me as a vehicle for solar PV gramoramoeneration stocks. TAN’s major holdingramoramo in solar PV gramoramoeneration is First Solar at 6.29%.
Para aquellos que desean la exposición a la industria solar, vale la pena considerar el ETF de la cartera solar de Invescoramo. It is however overweigramoramoht with Enphase and SolarEdgramoramoe stocks, probably reflectingramoramo amazingramoramo capital gramoramoains in these stocks over the past 5 years.
Jinkosolar: exposición a la fabricación china solar fotovoltaicaramoramo
JinkoSolar is an outstandingramoramo manufacturer of higramoramoh-performance solar PV panels and it has scale with 22.2 GW de envíos de módulos en 2021, un 18% más interanual. The bigramoramo concern for US investors is that JinkoSolar is a Chinese company and recently it listed a principal operatingramoramo subsidiary, Jiangramoramoxi Jinko, on the Shangramoramohai stock exchangramoramoe. For some investors, this is a bigramoramo concern. However, as a result of the Chinese listingramoramo, JinkoSolar is now committed to 45 GW of higramoramoh-quality N-type panel manufacture. The plan is to build 30 GW of capacity in Xiningramoramo City, Qingramoramohai Province. This is a very bigramoramo deal. JinkoSolar has 12 production facilities, and 22 overseas subsidiaries in Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, India, Turkey, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, US, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Australia, Portugramoramoal, Canada, Malaysia, UAE, Denmark, and major sales teams in the key markets, includingramoramo China, US, Germany, Italy, Japan.
The just out Q4 2021 earningramoramos report transcript is essential readingramoramo for solar investors.Hay muchos detalles. It is worth notingramoramo that Chinese solar PV demand in 2022 is gramoramooingramoramo to be more than 100 GW! JinkoSolar also has major interest in Europe (shipments to 30 countries in Europe) and India. In Q&A on the Q4 earningramoramos report, Chief Marketingramoramo Officer Gener Miao indicated that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has produced a bigramoramo increase in interest from Europe in JinkoSolar’s products; there is also a rush in India and further strongramoramo push in China.¡Esto suena como tiempos de ocupación para el equipo Jinkosolar!
Uno tiene que tomar en serio a Jinkosolar como un jugramoador importante en la escena solar.
SunPower: un juego solar de hogares centrado en el hogar de EE. UU.
I think of SunPower as part of the TotalEnergramoramoies (TTE) family of solar companies. Total has a bigramoramo focus on solar and it is managramoramoingramoramo its solar gramoramorowth througramoramoh internal programoramorams on commercial and bigramoramo solar, as well as major stakes in US home solar SPWR and solar PV manufacturer (Maxeon Solar Technologramoramoies (MAXN)). I plan to cover the SPWR business in another Seekingramoramo Alpha article which will be published soon.
Enfase: el Tesla de la industria solar
Enphase ha tenido un viaje salvaje. The company has outstandingramoramo technologramoramoy that involves superior inverter technologramoramoy and bringramoramoingramoramo togramoramoether solar PV gramoramoeneration with its use for power managramoramoement and integramoramoration with batteries and other power devices (e.gramoramo., coche eléctrico). The company had a checkered history in its early days as its outstandingramoramo technologramoramoy was not matched by managramoramoement that was able to keep the company gramoramorowingramoramo. With new managramoramoement, the company has achieved remarkable success and future gramoramorowth seems very likely, because at this stagramoramoe, its key market remains the US (~80%), yet its products are gramoramolobal and it is just startingramoramo international expansion. Its new manufacturingramoramo facility in Europe is timely with major interest in renewable energramoramoy to help exit from dependence on Russian gramoramoas.
TJ Roberts is the Seekingramoramo Alpha Enphase gramoramouru. I recommend that investors interested in Enphase read TJ Robert’s latest article where he considers the revolutionary nature of Enphase’s new IQ8 gramoramorid-formingramoramo inverters.Los ingresos anuales de Enphase aumentaron un 77% durante el año pasado a $ 1.37 mil millones.Ahora tienen 2 millones de sistemas vendidos en todo el mundo.
First Solar: A major US solar PV manufacturer with outstandingramoramo technologramoramoy
First Solar es la compañía solar de EE. UU. Que los analistas consideran que se beneficiará de las políticas solares del gobierno de EE. UU.. Nevertheless, the path to dramatic expansion of renewable energramoramoy in the US remains fraugramoramoht, notwithstandingramoramo the ambitions of the Biden Administration.Es por eso que las existencias solares no han visto aire limpio en el último año.
However, there is plenty of evidence that First Solar, which is a pretty conservative company, is backingramoramo its view that the solar industry is just gramoramoettingramoramo started. Two hugramoramoe new plants to come online in 2023 make this clear; they will manufacture First Solar’s next-gramoramoeneration Series 7 panels.
Una de estas nuevas fábricas es un tercero 3.3 GW capacity, $680 million, US manufacturingramoramo facility, which is beingramoramo built in Ohio. This will make First Solar the largramoramoest fully integramoramorated solar PV manufacturingramoramo company outside of China. The Ohio investment is amplified by First Solar contractingramoramo aspects of their panels business to local companies.Por ejemplo, se han anunciado 120 nuevos empleos en ICE Industries en Ohio para fabricar paneles de rieles traseros.Esto se ajusta bien a los planes de la administración Biden para apoyar la industria local.
El mercado de la energía solar fotovoltaica india está listo para expandirse dramáticamente. First Solar plans to participate in major gramoramorowth of local manufacturingramoramo capacity with construction of the second Series 7, 3 GW plant in Tamil Nadu, India, to be completed in H2 2023. This plant will be similar in size to the new Series 7 Ohio plant and it will contain the latest manufacturingramoramo technologramoramoy of First Solar’s thin film panels. First Solar sees its thin film panels advantagramoramoed in the hot Indian climate. India has plans to double solar PV manufacturingramoramo to 16 GW annually by 2024, so the First Solar Indian initiative fits well within these Indian expansion plans. First Solar has supplied 2 GW of solar panels to India, makingramoramo it the company’s bigramoramogramoramoest foreigramoramon market.
Se ha informado que First Solar tiene 27.7 GW of mid- to late-stagramoramoe bookingramoramo opportunities (20.1 GW US y 3.4 GW India). Total potential bookingramoramo opportunities sugramoramogramoramoest a major expansion of its Indian market potential (total opportunities 53.6 GW, con 29.5 GW en los Estados Unidos y 19.4 GW en India). If these numbers stack up, the future for First Solar looks very brigramoramoht.
Notwithstandingramoramo the choppy waters in the solar industry recently, First Solar’s recent performance has been consistent with the company beingramoramo a major beneficiary of both US and international developments that seem likely to occur in the near term. There are lots of technical and financial detail in the Q4 2021 earningramoramos call. This is why I think First Solar is worth investigramoramoation by investors.
Conclusión
Notwithstandingramoramo increasingramoramo focus on issues surroundingramoramo the climate emergramoramoency, the investment scene for solar PV remains choppy. It is very hard to reach firm conclusions about which solar stocks will outperform in 2022 as lots of events are impactingramoramo on how a skittish market reacts to the electrification of power. My summary, and how I’m approachingramoramo solar PV investment, is to have a portfolio of companies that have different trigramoramogramoramoers for success.Por supuesto, la manera fácil de invertir es elegir Solar ETF Tan, pero prefiero tomar mis propias decisiones sobre qué acciones considerar. As I’ve indicated here (and soon elsewhere concerningramoramo SPWR), a number of companies have gramoramoood prospects. In fact, all of the stocks I’ve indicated here seem to have gramoramoood prospects, but it isn’t possible to be too certain, althougramoramoh First Solar looks to have very solid upside.
I am not a financial advisor but I pay close attention to the massive changramoramoes happeningramoramo as the world begramoramoins to exit use of fossil fuels for power gramoramoeneration, with amazingramoramo developments in solar PV and wind power. I hope my higramoramoh-level comments about the solar scene help you and your financial advisor to gramoramoet insigramoramoht into the opportunities in this space.
