Many newspapers, including the Times, cover a new study showing that global warming could be kept to 2C by the end of the century – if all countries honour their climate pledges following COP26. “Before these pledges it was more than likely that at the peak of the climate crisis there would be a temperature rise above 2C, bringing more severe impacts for billions of people,“ writes the Guardian, adding: “Now it is more likely that the peak temperature rise will be about 1.9C.” However, the likelihood of reaching 1.5C warming – the other climate goal of the Paris Agreement – is now “only a 6-10% chance”, the Independent reports. Associated Press reports the world will “blast past” 1.5C within the next three years without dramatic new emission cuts this decade. A 2C warmer world “still represents what scientists characterise as a profoundly disrupted climate with fiercer storms, higher seas, animal and plant extinctions, disappearing coral, melting ice and more people dying from heat, smog and infectious disease,” the newswire warns.
Co-author and International Energy Agency spokesman Christophe McGlade calls the research “big news”, but adds, reports the Sydney Morning Herald, that “it can’t be taken for granted that governments will implement their pledges on time and in full, [and] it’s unfortunately the case that pledges have not been backed up by the strong and credible near-term policies needed to make them a reality”. In addition, the pledges include “those that developing countries have said will not happen without more financial and technical support”, says the Guardian.
“Actually achieving any long-term targets, the scientists say, will require nations to significantly boost their efforts today. Many countries have pledged relatively modest reductions in emissions by the end of the decade, meaning they would have to follow an improbably steep downward trajectory after 2030 to have a shot of achieving their mid-century goals,“ the Washington Post reports. The MailOnline, Bloomberg and the BBC also have the story.
The new findings align with Carbon Brief analysis that was published during COP26.
